Property Advice

Friday 25 August 2017

Hampstead Property Market – A year on from Brexit

The Land Registry has just released their latest set of figures for the Hampstead Property market. It makes interesting reading, as average property values in Hampstead dropped by 4.2 % in June. This leaves average property values 1.2 % higher than 12 months ago, meaning the annual rate of growth in the area fell to its lowest level since January 2012 according to a recent survey by Home track When we compare Hampstead against the regional picture, London property values rose by 2.6 % overall with buyer sentiment having had a more significant impact as a result of the EU Referendum and political uncertainty with a much weakened Conservative government.

Obviously this is a far cry from the price rises we were experiencing in Hampstead throughout 2014. At one point (August 2014 to be exact) property values were rising by 22.7% a year. All the same, the correction we are seeing will have a greater significance for distressed sellers who have a greater urgency to release funds.

However, the thing that concerns me is that the average number of properties changing hands (i.e. selling) has dropped substantially over the last couple of years in the area. For example in April 2014, 90 properties sold in Hampstead but in April 2015, that figure dropped to 41. The most significant event that had bucked the trend in 2016 was the announced Stamp Duty hikes on both primary residences and second homes which saw a substantial increase in supply in the first quarter with 133 properties sold in March of last year and for April 2017, the figure stands at 32.  Traditionally, the spring season is where the market starts to become active, though political headwinds over the General Election, stalled activity in the local market with a sharp fall of just under 22% of completed sales compared with the same period in 2015.

See the graph below - (Source Hampstead Property Blog Research)



In the main, the UK economy is centred around its housing market, the other reliable barometer are share prices in the large house builders like Wimpy homes with jaw dropping fall of 37.5%  and Barrat at a staggering 43%, all within a fortnight of the Referendum result. In June values in Hampstead fell by over 4% in real terms, though the market is hardly in freefall. Since then, the share prices for house builders have recovered well and the recent price falls we have seen in the local market will plateau in the near future. The Office for Budget responsibility has downgraded its forecast for the next 5 years showing average prices rises of 4.3% which is good news for the medium to long term.

The correlation between unemployment and house prices is strong. According to the ONS as of March the figure for the local constituency of Hampstead and Kilburn stands at 7.2% or 6,700, compared to the 10.7% of 2013, suggesting that the underpinnings of the local market are pretty robust. Overall, Brexit has caused a temporary wobble, though nothing significant enough for serious long term effect.  

As mentioned in my previous article, the more pressing issue is with inflation, currently at 2.9% and will likely rise into the final quarter of 2017. The Bank of England has dropped a subtle hint that rates may have to rise to bring it under control as the Sterling has weakened and imports are now dearer. Even so, over 85% of mortgages agreed so far  this year have been with fixed rates, very much with this in mind, and it’s a far cry from the early 90’s with rates at 15%.

Despite theses issues having impacted on the sentiments of purchasers and sellers, they will get fixed in time. The greatest threat to the Hampstead (and UK) property market is the shortage of new homes being built for a variety of tenures, especially in the big cities. When you consider that only 2.3% of all the land in the country is actually built on, the pressure on the Government to get its act together with a coherent housing policy is greater than ever. 

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If you are looking for an agent with experience that can help you find the right tenant for your property, then contact me to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property. Email me on chris@ashmoreresidential.com or give me a call on 020 7435 0420. Pop in for a chat – we are based at Ashmore Residential, Suite 7, 25-27 Heath Street, London, NW3 6TR. There is plenty of parking and the kettle is always on.

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