Hampstead
house prices up or Hampstead house prices down? ... and if so, by how much?
Those of you who read the Hampstead Property Blog will know I am not the sort
of person who pulls punches nor someone who ever fails to give a forthright and
straight talking opinion – so here are my thoughts for the 31,343 Hampstead and
Camden homeowners and landlords.
The average Hampstead
property is 3.2% higher today than it was a year ago, which doesn’t sound a
lot, but when you consider inflation is currently running at -0.1% (ie consumer/retail prices are dropping)
and average salary growth is only around 2.5% pa, this is bad news for first
time buyers as property affordability continues to decrease (although I was
reading in The Times the other day that wage inflation (ie salary growth) is showing signs of weakening).
Some
commentators have said the higher stamp duty taxes announced a few weeks ago in
the Autumn Statement for buy to let landlords, concerns over first time buyer affordability
and the outlook of UK interest rate rises in 2016 will really dampen the
property market. I hope you all read my previous article about what the new
stamp duty rule changes would really mean for Hampstead landlords in my blog,
but I believe the real issue in the Hampstead property market is the shortage
of property to buy, as people either worry there will be no suitable house to
move to, or cannot afford to upgrade. However, on the supply side, Mr Osborne
said in his Autumn Statement that he will change the planning laws to ensure
the government meets the pledge made at the General Election (back in May) of
200,000 new homes a year. All I can say
is .. good luck George hitting those numbers!
Why? Because houses take years to build .. not months .. so George
and his fabled house building aside .... where does that leave us in Hampstead
in 2016?
Well, talking of supply ... whilst Mr Osborne builds his
properties (and let’s be honest - a week doesn’t go by without him being filmed
on a building site with a high viz jacket and hard hat building a house here
and there!), let us look at the shortage of properties for sale. Back in December
2010, 1,063 properties were for sale in Hampstead .. today that figure is 928.
On the face of it, this means there is less choice for Hampstead buyers – but
it also means with a restricted supply of properties for sale .. it keeps
property prices high for Hampstead house sellers.
Everything isn’t all doom and gloom though ... again back in
December 2010, the average property in Hampstead took 129 days to find a buyer
.. latest figures state this has dropped to 87 days .. a drop of 33% in how
long it takes to find a buyer. However, when you delve even deeper, the best
performing type of property today in Hampstead is the 2 bed, which only takes 70
days to find a buyer (on average) compared to the 4 bed, which takes 128 days. It
just goes to show, even though the average has dropped since 2010, how varied
that change has been!
So, back to the question everyone is asking .... What
will happen to property values in Hampstead in 2016? I am going to suggest they will rise between 2.5%
and 3% ... nothing out of the ordinary, but unless something cataclysmic
happens in the world, 2016 will be like 2015! For more thoughts, opinions and
views on the Hampstead property market .. visit the Hampstead Property Blog www.NW3propertyblog.com
If you are looking for an agent with experience that can help you find the right tenant for your property, then contact us to find out how we can get the best out of your investment property. Email me on chris@ashmoreresidential.com or give me a call on 020 7435 0420. Pop in for a chat – we are based on Ashmore Residential, Suite 7, 25-27 Heath Street, London, NW3 6TR. The kettle is always on.
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